Rate Lock Advisory

Friday, March 31th

Friday’s bond market has opened in positive territory following favorable economic headlines. Stocks are looking to end the week on a positive note, pushing the Dow higher by 176 points and the Nasdaq up 66 points. The bond market is currently up 7/32 (3.52%), which should keep this morning’s mortgage pricing very close to Thursday’s early rates.

7/32

Bonds

30 yr - 3.52%

176

Dow

33,035

66

NASDAQ

12,080

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Medium

Positive

Personal Income and Outlays

The first of this morning’s two economic releases was February's Personal Income and Outlays report at 8:30 AM ET. It revealed income and spending were inline with expectations. Income pegged forecasts at up 0.3% while spending rose 0.2%, falling just short of the predicted 0.3%. The good news came in the core PCE inflation index within the data that rose 0.3% when it was expected to rise 0.4%. Not only did the monthly rate come in lower than expected, but the year over year number also fell below January’s level, hinting that inflation is easing (albeit very slowly). Since this index is the Fed’s preferred inflation reading and waning inflation makes bonds more attractive to investors, we can consider the report to be favorable for mortgage rates.

Medium

Positive

Univ of Mich Consumer Sentiment (Rev)

March’s revised Consumer Sentiment Index was today’s late morning release. The University of Michigan announced a reading of 62.0 that was lower than the initial reading of 63.4 from two weeks ago. A decline in this index means surveyed consumers felt less optimistic about their own financial situations than previously. Analysts believe waning confidence translates into softer levels of consumer spending that makes up a huge part of the U.S. economy. As a sign of economic weakness, we can label the report good news for mortgage rates.

High

Unknown

ISM Index (Institute for Supply Management)

Next week has plenty scheduled with the potential to move mortgage rates. The week starts with one of the new month’s highly important reports and closes with another. We will get March’s Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) manufacturing index late Monday while the calendar ends Friday when the almighty Employment report is posted. The bond market will only close early Friday for the Good Friday holiday, instead of a full closure, due to the importance of the monthly Employment report. Look for details on all of next week’s activities in Sunday evening’s weekly preview.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Hill Valley Financial Services Inc.
503-631-3311 | icanloanit2you@yahoo.com
18080 S. Shiloh Lane Oregon City, OR, 97045
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